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Site Selection Dashboard · Prepared May 2026
A side-by-side analysis of two real-estate opportunities, with interactive financial modeling and a clear recommendation for the Timoteo family.
Both sites fit Berry Fresh's affluent breakfast/brunch DNA. The difference is in timing, certainty, and how much capital risk you take on Day 1.
Corner site in a maturing affluent town, anchored by the Atlantic Fields luxury community now under construction along Bridge Road.
New ground in the Becker Road extension corridor — Sundance (8,000 homes) is a long-tail growth bet on the Martin/St. Lucie border.
Comparable trade-area pulls, anchor neighbors, and what each site looks like physically.
| Attribute | Hobe Sound — US‑1 & Bridge Rd | Palm City — Becker Rd Corridor |
|---|---|---|
| Trade area type | Mature affluent coastal town + new luxury build-out | Emerging master-planned corridor |
| Anchor demand driver | Atlantic Fields (Discovery Land Co.) — 317 homes, Fazio golf course, equestrian center, ~$20M/yr tax revenue at buildout | Sundance (Akel Homes) — 2,500 acres, 8,000 homes, 25,000 future residents |
| Current population (zip) | 14,313 in 33455 (delivered) | 31,160 in 34990, but Sundance is < 5% built out |
| Median household income | $74,112 (zip 33455) | $129,560 (Palm City 34990) |
| Median age | 55 — perfect brunch demo | 51.4 |
| Distance from nearest Berry Fresh | ~12 mi (Jupiter / Stuart) | ~7 mi (St. Lucie West) — cannibalization risk |
| Traffic count (AADT) | ~25,500 vehicles/day on US‑1 at Hobe Sound | Becker Rd: lower today, growing rapidly as extension opens |
| Visibility | Hard corner on signalized US‑1 intersection | Depends on specific parcel; new corridor |
| Direct breakfast competition | Harry & The Natives, Old Dixie Cafe, Bagel Bistro, Keke's nearby | Limited within 3 mi — open market |
| Lease maturity | 2nd-gen space likely available | New construction — higher TI cost, longer ramp |
| Ramp curve | Fast — demand exists Day 1 | Slow — 24–36 months to stabilize |
A signalized corner on the only north–south spine through town. Bridge Road is the main east–west into Hobe Sound's residential core and the gateway to Atlantic Fields.
The Becker Road extension just connected Village Parkway to Range Line Road, opening up the southwestern PSL corridor and the Martin County line for new commercial development.
Demographic match against Berry Fresh's existing customer base. Both trade areas index well above the Florida average, but in different ways.
The breakfast/brunch lane is structurally less competitive than lunch or dinner. Both markets have room for a chef-driven, locally-sourced concept like Berry Fresh.
A mix of diner classics and bagel/deli concepts. Nothing in market matches Berry Fresh's chef-driven, locally-sourced positioning.
Very limited breakfast competition along the Becker corridor today. Palm City's established options sit further west on Mapp Rd / Martin Hwy.
Edit any of the values below. Defaults are 2025 industry medians for full-service breakfast/brunch concepts. Calculator runs live as you type.
Treasure Coast restaurants live and die by the snowbird calendar. This section models monthly P&L using a seasonal index and stress-tests whether your projected breakeven holds when covers drop in July–September.
Drag the sliders to set how seasonal you expect Hobe Sound to be vs. an "average" month (index = 100). Peak Jan–Mar runs hottest, July–September is the trough. Atlantic Fields residents will be 75%+ seasonal, so this trade area will be more cyclical than Jupiter or Stuart.
The Hobe Sound case rests on Atlantic Fields delivering rooftops on the timeline we expect. Here's what we can confirm publicly, what's still soft, and what to verify directly with Discovery Land.
Atlantic Fields is real, funded, and physically being built — the golf course is open and homes are under contract. But the customer base flows in gradually, not all at once. Day-1 demand for Berry Fresh comes from the existing Hobe Sound population (14,300 today), seasonal residents already in town, and the construction/sales/visitor traffic Atlantic Fields generates. The full Atlantic Fields tailwind doesn't arrive until 2028–2030, by which point you should be in your 3rd or 4th year of operation. This is a positive — you get to ramp into the demand, not the other way around.
Adjust the weights to see how the picture changes. Each criterion is scored 1–10 based on the research above.
| Criterion | Weight (%) | Hobe Sound | Palm City | Weighted ΔHS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic match (age, HHI) | % |
9 | 6 | — |
| Existing demand (rooftops today) | % |
9 | 4 | — |
| Long-term growth potential | % |
6 | 9 | — |
| Distance from existing BF (cannibalization risk) | % |
9 | 3 | — |
| Traffic count / visibility | % |
8 | 5 | — |
| Competitive whitespace (brunch lane) | % |
8 | 9 | — |
| Real estate cost & lease terms | % |
8 | 5 | — |
| Speed to stabilized AUV | % |
9 | 6 | — |
| Anchor / co-tenant quality | % |
8 | 8 | — |
| Weighted Total | 100% | — | — | — |
Weights must sum to 100%. The matrix above reflects a balanced view; at the default weights Hobe Sound wins by a meaningful margin. Try weighting "Long-term growth potential" higher to stress-test the Palm City case.
A site-selection memo is only as good as the diligence behind it. These are the open questions for each option, in order of urgency.